Julian Bond wrote:
> One thing I noticed the other day. There aren't any "no-hopers" this
> year. There's no team on Dunlops. If the satellite Hondas are as good as
> the Repsol's from the last race of 2007, they'll be competitive at the
> start of the season. The D'Antin team seem like they might actually have
> some money and their Ducatis should also be as good as Stoner's from
> late 2007. KR doesn't look like they'll be on the grid. I think we'll
> see several races in the first half of the season where the entire grid
> is covered by 1 second. This is bound to change as the top teams move
> their development away from the private teams but at least to start with
> I think it's all going to be very close.
>
> But then quality will out. I think Hopkins will end up exactly where he
> was last year. In the TV frame in 3rd and 4th. And he may well have
> Vermeulen and another 4 or 5 bikes for company.
>
> Perhaps it doesn't matter if there's only 18 bikes starting if they're
> all covered by 20s. Which is going to make it even more important not to
> have an off day. If Melandri or Capirossi have a bad day, they could end
> up with a faster race time than last year, 20s back from the front and
> 15th.
>
> The other fun question is whether any of the wunderkind will do a Dani P
> and win a race in their rookie season. Jorge at Assen? Dovi at a wet Le
> Mans? Toseland at Qatar? Then there's the question of who's going to get
> taken out by De Puniet, De Angelis, Elias and where.
>
> Yup, it's going to be the best season ever. Like always. And there's
> good reason to think that 250, 125, WSB and WSS are all going to be epic
> as well. And that's before we get to the national championships.
> DonchaJusLoveThisSport?
Yes, it all looks rather rosy this time of year, but then the usual
stuff starts once the racing does. You don't mention tires at all here,
and the only way that the year turns out anything like what you describe
is if Michelin manages to make up the small gap they had last year to
Bridgestone, and there's no certainty of that at all. Over recent years
Bridgestone tends to make big, sudden leaps, and that has been after a
winter of work, or after the summer break. What if they make another
sudden leap, and essentially Honda is sunk, and everyone at Yamaha
except Rossi?
The other possibility is that, with the retention of the tire limits,
Michelin manages to bridge the overall gap but there is nothing
consistent in that. So one weekend Michelin has a notable advantage and
the next it's Bridgestone. With tires crafted for specific tracks in
MotoGP and the way last year went, there would be nothing surprising
about that. That might be an edge for the Repsol boys, who only have to
fight each other when the bleu tires are tops, but Rossi and Stoner and
Malendri and Hopkins and Vermeulen have each other to battle when the
rising sun has risen.
Then you have the perpetual tail-ending of the Suzukis and Kawasakis,
who never seem to quite catch the big three and who might have looked
artificially good with the situation as it was last year. There is
always hope for them, but that usually comes up rags once the racing
starts. Neither has ever won a dry race in MotoGP, which is saying
something.
And then the inevitable difference between the factory bikes nad the
lease boys, and all signs point to that gap increasing this year - the
new bikes last year meant everyone was starting at about the same spot,
but that's gone now, and the failures at Honda and Yamaha probably means
they will be focused more than ever on their top guys. And Honda has
their worst field of lease riders I can recall in MotoGP - two rookies,
Nakano coming off his worst year ever, questionable de Puniet changing
bikes. And those guys are hrdly the only questionable ones, you can
throw in Lorenzo, Toseland, Capirossi, Elias, Guntoli as well.
So the whole field within 20 seconds? Not likely, but we probably won't
see as much of guys being more than a minute off at the end. But I don't
think it will be unusual at all to see guys 40-50 seconds back.
What I do think we'll see this year are some surprises, as the
foundation of what the playing field is for most folks looking in, built
on last year, is so unstable, so uncertain - is Rossi done? Is Stoner
for real? Will the bigger bike work for Hayden and is he a real
contender or was '06 a fluke? Can Kawasaki and Hopkins make that last
jump? Can Melandri and Ducati make that marriage work? Can Michelin come
back? Can Pedrosa make the step up to serious championship contender? Is
Vermeulen ready to step it up as well, and is Suzuki really committed to
winning in GP?
The three guys with the best shots are Rossi, Pedrosa and Stoner, of
course, as the top guys at the three top factory teams. Hayden and
Melandri have additional hurdles, Marco changing bikes and that not
starting well, Hayden having to try harder as #2, as always, and hope
the bike actually fits him now. Hopkins hasn't fully meshed with the
Kawi yet, and Kawi has to make a general jump as well. And the tires
can't be a big issue for any of them. Beyond that, I don't see anyone
consistently in the fight.
>> Stay informed about: after reading about capirossi and melandri's struggles w/ .. 
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