Victorian motorcycle crash stats - we're to blame?

Read carefully - a huge sample of 47!!!!

Adrian
CT-110


"sanbar" <sandbar.TakeThisOut@nospam.ozemail.com.au> wrote in message
news:pan.2004.03.22.11.41.07.625203.4500@nospam.ozemail.com.au...
 > Bikers' fault in most crashes
 > By Ian Munro
 > March 22, 2004
 >
 > Motorcyclists were at fault in three-quarters of fatal or near-fatal
 > crashes involving them, according to a detailed Victoria Police road crash
 > investigation from May 2002 to April 2003.
 >
 > Excessive speed and alcohol and drug consumption were found to be key
 > elements in causing serious motorcycle crashes.
 >
 > But the study, to be released today, also found left-hand bends with a
 > downhill slope particularly lethal for riders.
 >
 > More at <http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/03/21/1079823245290.html>
 >
 > - sanbar<!-- ~MESSAGE_AFTER~ -->
 >> Stay informed about: Victorian motorcycle crash stats - we're to blame? 

In aus.motorcycles on Mon, 22 Mar 2004 13:48:24 +1100
Silmaril <someone.TakeThisOut@somewhere.com> wrote:
 > Read carefully - a huge sample of 47!!!!
 >

fatals. They say "and serious injury" but it isn't clear what the
criteria for that are, or if all such crashes are included.

47 is about right I'd have said for one years worth of fatal crashes.

The concentration on fatals is a problem. Small sample sizes, and the
fact that in bike crashes there's a fine line between "dead" and
"smashed up".

Haven't seen the report, and the press article is clearly
sensationalised. However, it does appear that the majority of fatals
were single vehicle, and the majority of multi-vehicles were not the
bike's fault in any way.


However... there is a bit of "we can do no wrong" amongst bikers.

Zebee<!-- ~MESSAGE_AFTER~ -->
 >> Stay informed about: Victorian motorcycle crash stats - we're to blame? 

sanbar wrote:

 > Bikers' fault in most crashes
 > By Ian Munro
 > March 22, 2004
 >
 > Motorcyclists were at fault in three-quarters of fatal or near-fatal
 > crashes involving them, according to a detailed Victoria Police road crash
 > investigation from May 2002 to April 2003.
 >
 > Excessive speed and alcohol and drug consumption were found to be key
 > elements in causing serious motorcycle crashes.
 >
 > But the study, to be released today, also found left-hand bends with a
 > downhill slope particularly lethal for riders.
 >
 > More at <http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/03/21/1079823245290.html>
 >
 > - sanbar

The left hand bends thing was a bit of a puzzle for me at first.

I always feel a little more nervous on right hand bends.

So I suppose if I am going to overcook a corner it is going to be a left
hander.

Running wide on a right hander puts you in the dirt.

Running wide on a left hander puts you in the shit if there's on-coming
traffic.

So I suppose that if taking a corner too fast is going to be fatal, it's
more likely to be on a left-hander.

Moike<!-- ~MESSAGE_AFTER~ -->
 >> Stay informed about: Victorian motorcycle crash stats - we're to blame? 

Sayeth moike <moike DeleteThis @telstra.com>:
 >
 > The left hand bends thing was a bit of a puzzle for me at first.
 > [...]
 > Running wide on a right hander puts you in the dirt.
 > Running wide on a left hander puts you in the shit if there's on-coming
 > traffic.

On the other hand, in a given spot, there's always a hazard if
you run wide on a RH, but there's nothing there 99% of the time
if you run over the line on a LH ...

-----sharks
--
Nick 'Sharkey' Moore | Everyone complains about the laws of physics
<sharkey DeleteThis @zoic.org> | but nobody ever does anything about them!<!-- ~MESSAGE_AFTER~ -->
 >> Stay informed about: Victorian motorcycle crash stats - we're to blame? 

In aus.motorcycles on Mon, 22 Mar 2004 14:19:05 +1100
moike <moike.DeleteThis@telstra.com> wrote:
 >
 > I always feel a little more nervous on right hand bends.
 >

Lots of people do - there's not a nice line to follow, the corner isn't
as "inviting".

but people in RHD countries prefer left handers too... Keith Code
speculates it is because in a right you are countersteering with the
non-throttle hand, it's easier as you aren't giving steering and
throttle inputs with the same hand.

Zebee<!-- ~MESSAGE_AFTER~ -->
 >> Stay informed about: Victorian motorcycle crash stats - we're to blame? 

Yes, serious injury can be anything from needing a bandage to a night in ICU
depending on the satistics number cruncher at work.
The Age said that 39 were fatal, and 8 were nearly so, of the 47 sample.

Do you think this is an accurate representation of May 02 to April 03?
Study undertaken by a "...detailed Victoria Police road crash
investigation."

I'd be interested in an equivalent study from the ABS, it is hard to judge
whether a Vic Police report will be biased, and if so, in which way.
The fact that they do not give exact numbers or quotations for the statement
"Excessive speed and alcohol and drug consumption were found to be key
elements in causing serious motorcycle crashes." is worrying.

What percentage of car drivers are at fault in car crashes, I wonder?

Cheers,
Adrian
CT-110


 > fatals. They say "and serious injury" but it isn't clear what the
 > criteria for that are, or if all such crashes are included.
 >
 > 47 is about right I'd have said for one years worth of fatal crashes.
 >
 > The concentration on fatals is a problem. Small sample sizes, and the
 > fact that in bike crashes there's a fine line between "dead" and
 > "smashed up".
 >
 > Haven't seen the report, and the press article is clearly
 > sensationalised. However, it does appear that the majority of fatals
 > were single vehicle, and the majority of multi-vehicles were not the
 > bike's fault in any way.
 >
 >
 > However... there is a bit of "we can do no wrong" amongst bikers.
 >
 > Zebee<!-- ~MESSAGE_AFTER~ -->
 >> Stay informed about: Victorian motorcycle crash stats - we're to blame? 

In aus.motorcycles on Mon, 22 Mar 2004 15:27:50 +1100
Silmaril <someone.DeleteThis@somewhere.com> wrote:
 >
 > I'd be interested in an equivalent study from the ABS, it is hard to judge
 > whether a Vic Police report will be biased, and if so, in which way.
 > The fact that they do not give exact numbers or quotations for the statement
 > "Excessive speed and alcohol and drug consumption were found to be key
 > elements in causing serious motorcycle crashes." is worrying.

remember... you aren't seeing the report.

You are seeing a reporter's summary (with an eye to "news value") of a
press release.

You can't know what the report says without reading it.

On the other hand, I am not surprised that impaired riders crash. What
we *don't* know is how many impaired riders are riding.

Zebee<!-- ~MESSAGE_AFTER~ -->
 >> Stay informed about: Victorian motorcycle crash stats - we're to blame? 

"Zebee Johnstone" wrote

 > On the other hand, I am not surprised that impaired riders crash. What
 > we *don't* know is how many impaired riders are riding.

Well, there's Corks (spelling), Nev (wit), IK (humour), KP (politically),
and Bobby (just impaired) for starters.

Theo<!-- ~MESSAGE_AFTER~ -->
 >> Stay informed about: Victorian motorcycle crash stats - we're to blame? 

sharkey wrote:
 > Sayeth moike <moike DeleteThis @telstra.com>:
 >
  >>
  >> The left hand bends thing was a bit of a puzzle for me at first.
  >>[...]
  >> Running wide on a right hander puts you in the dirt.
  >> Running wide on a left hander puts you in the shit if there's on-coming
  >> traffic.
 >
 >
 > On the other hand, in a given spot, there's always a hazard if
 > you run wide on a RH, but there's nothing there 99% of the time
 > if you run over the line on a LH ...
 >
 > -----sharks
And so *some people* might be inclined to be a little less cautious
about running wide on a left hander. There might not be something there.

Any other thoughts as to the source of this apparent anomaly? Or is it
likely to be just a coincidence related to the sample size.

Moike<!-- ~MESSAGE_AFTER~ -->
 >> Stay informed about: Victorian motorcycle crash stats - we're to blame? 

Sayeth moike <moike.RemoveThis@telstra.com>:
 >
 > And so *some people* might be inclined to be a little less cautious
 > about running wide on a left hander. There might not be something there.

true, true, maybe

 > Any other thoughts as to the source of this apparent anomaly? Or is it
 > likely to be just a coincidence related to the sample size.

My money's on the sample size, but you'd need the raw data to see.
Did they mention publishing anything anywhere?

-----sharks
--
Nick 'Sharkey' Moore | Everyone complains about the laws of physics
<sharkey.RemoveThis@zoic.org> | but nobody ever does anything about them!<!-- ~MESSAGE_AFTER~ -->
 >> Stay informed about: Victorian motorcycle crash stats - we're to blame? 

In article <405f5623$1@news.bekkers.com.au>,
"Theo Bekkers" <theo.RemoveThis@bekkers.com.au> wrote:

 > "Zebee Johnstone" wrote
 >
  > > On the other hand, I am not surprised that impaired riders crash. What
  > > we *don't* know is how many impaired riders are riding.
 >
 > Well, there's Corks (spelling), Nev (wit), IK (humour), KP (politically),
 > and Bobby (just impaired) for starters.

And theres somebody we keep teasing for being "youth impaired" too...



big (anorexically impaired)

--
'When I first met Katho, she had a meat cleaver in one hand and
half a sheep in the other. "Come in", she says, "Hammo's not here.
I hope you like meat.' Sharkey in aus.moto<!-- ~MESSAGE_AFTER~ -->
 >> Stay informed about: Victorian motorcycle crash stats - we're to blame? 

Zebee Johnstone wrote:

 > Haven't seen the report, and the press article is clearly sensationalised.

Which is strange, because the author is a motorcycle rider himself.

Nev..
'03 ZX12R<!-- ~MESSAGE_AFTER~ -->
 >> Stay informed about: Victorian motorcycle crash stats - we're to blame? 

"Nev.." <idiot DeleteThis @mindless.com> wrote:
 >
 > Zebee Johnstone wrote:
 >
  > > Haven't seen the report, and the press article is clearly
sensationalised.
 >
 > Which is strange, because the author is a motorcycle rider himself.

In his private correspondence with people, Scruby likes to point out that
he's a former motorcyclist of six years.<!-- ~MESSAGE_AFTER~ -->
 >> Stay informed about: Victorian motorcycle crash stats - we're to blame?