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Since: Mar 05, 2005 Posts: 777
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(Msg. 1) Posted: Thu Nov 22, 2007 9:56 am
Post subject: Colin's take on the tires, etc. Archived from groups: rec>motorcycles>racing (more info?)
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From an interview in CN after the last race:
CN: He's [Rossi] going to be announced on Bridgestone next year. That
leaves you, Jorge Lorenzo and James Toseland on Michelins. Are you happy
with that?
CE: Kind of, yeah. I can't run Valentino's tires. And to get him off of
Michelin to where me and James and Nicky and Pedrosa, Lorenzo, we can
kind of develop what we want. Nobody can run Valentino's tires.
CN: Why is that?
CE: The guy grew up on minimotos. Minimotos and 125s and just stiff and
hard stuff - like riding a piece of concrete. And he's just so
accustomed to that that he's carried that through. I started on
superbikes and was on superbikes for 10 years or something. I want
something with a bit of play, a bit of cush... information. I try to
ride his tires and I'm like a second and a half slower than on what I
normally use. I just can't get any traction on the ground. But you know,
Pedrosa can't use his tires. Pedrosa doesn't use it, Nicky doesn't use
it. Nobody uses his stuff. So, yeah, is it good for us? I think, yeah. I
think it's good he's going to Bridgestone, simply for the development of
Bridgestone.
CN: Hayden's response was that Bridgestone has another good guy
developing their tires.
CE: Obviously, we know the circumstances about Bridgestone and how
Valentino got Bridgestones. I don't think Bridgestone is going to be
overly concerned in developing the number-one best Yamaha tire on the
planet. I think it's going to be, "Here's the Suzuki, the Kawi, the
Ducati tire; take your pick of which one works on your bike." At the end
of the day, Stoner and Bridgestone and Ducati, they're going to lead
most of the development.
Colin also talked a lot about the problems with the '07 Yamaha, leading
one to the conclusion that they have been in one of their reduced
efforts periods, the same thing Roberts and Lawson and Rainey complained
about in the past. And he also talked about going to Tech3 with an open
mind and ready to try different things. Given the Sepang test times,
breaking the lap record on race tires, things seem to be working pretty
well for him at this point, and he felt Michelin "have made a big jump,
especially here. They are working and it's good".
And it's okay for Toseland, having satisfied himself that he can race
with these guys, although maybe not quite so good for Lorenzo, who's
still trying to adjust, oddly saying, "I'm concentrating on changing my
riding style to brake later and slow my midcorner speed. I'm still too
fast and rising the bike too much like a 250."
CN also goes into The Rossi Threat to Yemakeh, ready to retire or jump
to Ducati or something after 2009 if they can't deliver a bike that can
deliver him back to the front. And apparently similar attitude from
Pedrosa, on whom CN says, "And Hayden's teammate Dani Pedrosa didn't
even show in Malaysia and says he won't until vast improvements are
made" [in the 2008 machine]. Apparently HRC also said Hayden could skip
this test as well, but his comment is, "After the season I had, the last
thinhg I deserved were a few extra days of vacation. I would have felt
guilty to stay at home and not do some work." I guess it's a question of
sense of entitlement and leverage with your employer.
Already shaping up to be an interesting offseason... >> Stay informed about: Colin's take on the tires, etc. |
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Since: Nov 24, 2006 Posts: 10
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(Msg. 2) Posted: Sat Nov 24, 2007 7:16 pm
Post subject: Re: Colin's take on the tires, etc. [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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here's my prediction: rossi's put himself in a tough spot. i'll go
out on a limb and say he'll never again be motogp world champion.
i have a hard time believing bridgestone, given their <ahem>
reluctance to take on rossi, will make big efforts to make tires
specifically to his liking. michelin seem to have alot of determined
guys still on their rubber and riding good honda hardware to
challenge.
yamaha doesnt appear to be investing as they were during the 990 era,
what with their 50th anniversary already passing with a world title
safely captured. if things dont turn around for yamaha in 2008, rossi
and burgess are gone...but to where? they'd demand a team showing
promise and potential.
honda? no chance! been there, done that. plus, pride would never
let that happen...from both honda and rossi's end.
think suzuki can realistically make a run? they've made alot of
progress lately and seem to be going in the right direction
technically and financially, but they seem to have made a committment
to younger talent with vermeulen, and spies waiting in the wings. and
they already have an over-the-hill italian on the squad!
similarly ducati have gone "young" with stoner and melandri. although
i'm sure room could be made for rossi on an i-talian team, if only to
create serious buzz and make some money.
kawi? i dont think they've shown enough for a guy like rossi to even
be interested.
just some late nite rambling...
-w
On Nov 22, 12:56 pm, Mark N <menusb... RemoveThis @NYETSPAMearthlink.net> wrote:
> From an interview in CN after the last race:
>
> CN: He's [Rossi] going to be announced on Bridgestone next year. That
> leaves you, Jorge Lorenzo and James Toseland on Michelins. Are you happy
> with that?
>
> CE: Kind of, yeah. I can't run Valentino's tires. And to get him off of
> Michelin to where me and James and Nicky and Pedrosa, Lorenzo, we can
> kind of develop what we want. Nobody can run Valentino's tires.
>
> CN: Why is that?
>
> CE: The guy grew up on minimotos. Minimotos and 125s and just stiff and
> hard stuff - like riding a piece of concrete. And he's just so
> accustomed to that that he's carried that through. I started on
> superbikes and was on superbikes for 10 years or something. I want
> something with a bit of play, a bit of cush... information. I try to
> ride his tires and I'm like a second and a half slower than on what I
> normally use. I just can't get any traction on the ground. But you know,
> Pedrosa can't use his tires. Pedrosa doesn't use it, Nicky doesn't use
> it. Nobody uses his stuff. So, yeah, is it good for us? I think, yeah. I
> think it's good he's going to Bridgestone, simply for the development of
> Bridgestone.
>
> CN: Hayden's response was that Bridgestone has another good guy
> developing their tires.
>
> CE: Obviously, we know the circumstances about Bridgestone and how
> Valentino got Bridgestones. I don't think Bridgestone is going to be
> overly concerned in developing the number-one best Yamaha tire on the
> planet. I think it's going to be, "Here's the Suzuki, the Kawi, the
> Ducati tire; take your pick of which one works on your bike." At the end
> of the day, Stoner and Bridgestone and Ducati, they're going to lead
> most of the development.
>
> Colin also talked a lot about the problems with the '07 Yamaha, leading
> one to the conclusion that they have been in one of their reduced
> efforts periods, the same thing Roberts and Lawson and Rainey complained
> about in the past. And he also talked about going to Tech3 with an open
> mind and ready to try different things. Given the Sepang test times,
> breaking the lap record on race tires, things seem to be working pretty
> well for him at this point, and he felt Michelin "have made a big jump,
> especially here. They are working and it's good".
>
> And it's okay for Toseland, having satisfied himself that he can race
> with these guys, although maybe not quite so good for Lorenzo, who's
> still trying to adjust, oddly saying, "I'm concentrating on changing my
> riding style to brake later and slow my midcorner speed. I'm still too
> fast and rising the bike too much like a 250."
>
> CN also goes into The Rossi Threat to Yemakeh, ready to retire or jump
> to Ducati or something after 2009 if they can't deliver a bike that can
> deliver him back to the front. And apparently similar attitude from
> Pedrosa, on whom CN says, "And Hayden's teammate Dani Pedrosa didn't
> even show in Malaysia and says he won't until vast improvements are
> made" [in the 2008 machine]. Apparently HRC also said Hayden could skip
> this test as well, but his comment is, "After the season I had, the last
> thinhg I deserved were a few extra days of vacation. I would have felt
> guilty to stay at home and not do some work." I guess it's a question of
> sense of entitlement and leverage with your employer.
>
> Already shaping up to be an interesting offseason... >> Stay informed about: Colin's take on the tires, etc. |
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Since: Dec 17, 2005 Posts: 247
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(Msg. 3) Posted: Sat Nov 24, 2007 9:13 pm
Post subject: Re: Colin's take on the tires, etc. [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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<wamanning.TakeThisOut@email.com> wrote in message
news:368605cc-f1ab-4bc3-bedc-157846b7386f@d4g2000prg.googlegroups.com...
> i have a hard time believing bridgestone, given their <ahem>
> reluctance to take on rossi, will make big efforts to make tires
> specifically to his liking.
I think Rossi's gamble is simply that he will be better than Stoner on
absolutely equal tire terms. We shall all see whether that gamble was smart
or foolish pretty quickly. Bridgstone may not even want or need to pick a
favorite for a while.
Even the Japanese keiretsu thing is confusing: Ducati, a non-Japanese
manufacturer, was the one that gave Bridgestone the title and the reputation
for superiority. Will Bridgestone honor that partnership, or will they align
themselves closer with Japanese vendors as those move closer?
It depends on many things.
> ... rossi
> and burgess ....
Dominance like that never lasts for that long in MotoGP, other than Agostini
and MV Augusta. Champions get older and more conservative. Younger
contenders hungrier and willing to take risks. The history of that is as old
as the sport, and there's not reason why Rossi would be above it. Awesome
career, genius coming through the ranks... but past trends don't run on
iertia for longer than a few races in MotoGP unless people stay very hungry.
Several things indicate Rossi is no longer as hungry and committed as he
was. in my opinion.
....p >> Stay informed about: Colin's take on the tires, etc. |
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Since: Jun 20, 2003 Posts: 798
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(Msg. 4) Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2007 4:41 am
Post subject: Re: Colin's take on the tires, etc. [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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wamanning.TakeThisOut@email.com Sat, 24 Nov 2007 19:16:09
>here's my prediction: rossi's put himself in a tough spot. i'll go
>out on a limb and say he'll never again be motogp world champion.
I get the feeling that several races last year were skewed by the 32
tyre limit. Now that all the posturing and threats have played out into
a 40 tyre choice on Thursday night, that may have been enough for Rossi
to be competitive for the title on Michelins combined with a new R&D
push. But the musical chairs ended up with Rossi on Bridgestone. Combine
that with Rossi missing tests and it may well take till mid season for
Bridgestone to come up with a tyre that he likes. Add a Yamaha engine
that isn't fast enough or breaks and it's hard to see him able to match
Stoner next year over the whole season. If you think that Stoner at 22
is a match for Rossi at 28, then it still feels like
Stoner+Ducati+Bridgestone can trump Rossi+Yamaha+Bridgestone.
My take as of Nov '07
- Rossi is screwed. The best he can hope for in '08 is 2nd
- Repsol Honda are screwed. It'll take till mid '08 for the new bike to
be competitive
- Melandri is screwed. He won't be able to get his head round riding a
motocross bike.
- Lorenzo is screwed. Stuck on his own in a garage with no friends and
with Edwards+Toseland ganging up on him. But then as a rookie nobody is
expecting wins.
- Hopkins, Vermeulen, Capirossi will be fast. Just not fast enough.
- Toseland, Lorenzo, Dovizioso, De Angelis is going to be a real needle
match with a lot of elbows, pushing and shoving. There's a lot of pride
at stake here.
- The rest will be only a fraction off the pace and just like this year,
have a bad day and you end up 13th.
Which leaves Stoner with the championship to lose. Barring bad luck
catching up with him, it's hard to see anything but a continuation of
this year's run.
Put that another way. Stoner, Rossi, Dani P are the only riders I can
imagine winning the championship. But by 2/3 of the season, I think
Stoner will be out front with the other two chasing him down. Again.
--
Julian Bond E&MSN: julian_bond at voidstar.com M: +44 (0)77 5907 2173
Webmaster: http://www.ecademy.com/ T: +44 (0)192 0412 433
Personal WebLog: http://www.voidstar.com/ skype:julian.bond?chat
Add Butter And Vanilla >> Stay informed about: Colin's take on the tires, etc. |
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Since: Jun 20, 2003 Posts: 798
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(Msg. 5) Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2007 4:41 am
Post subject: Re: Colin's take on the tires, etc. [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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How does the 40 tyre rule play out? Do we get to see more qualifying
tyres used in final practice?
And how many tyres did the factories bring per bike before there was a
limit? Is it actually working out more expensive for them now?
There's also the new rules about tyre testing at unfamiliar circuits
that should reduce the need to take so many gambles on Thursday night.
I wish they'd eased off on the fuel restriction as well. Just as we saw
races skewed by the tyre rules, we also saw races skewed by the fuel
limit.
--
Julian Bond E&MSN: julian_bond at voidstar.com M: +44 (0)77 5907 2173
Webmaster: http://www.ecademy.com/ T: +44 (0)192 0412 433
Personal WebLog: http://www.voidstar.com/ skype:julian.bond?chat
Add Butter And Vanilla >> Stay informed about: Colin's take on the tires, etc. |
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Since: Jul 04, 2003 Posts: 125
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(Msg. 6) Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2007 11:33 am
Post subject: Re: Colin's take on the tires, etc. [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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"Julian Bond" <julian_bond.RemoveThis@voidstar.com> wrote in message
news:dGHSJwgBfTSHFAVA@jblaptop.voidstar.com...
> wamanning.RemoveThis@email.com Sat, 24 Nov 2007 19:16:09
> >here's my prediction: rossi's put himself in a tough spot. i'll go
> >out on a limb and say he'll never again be motogp world champion.
>
> I get the feeling that several races last year were skewed by the 32
> tyre limit. Now that all the posturing and threats have played out into
> a 40 tyre choice on Thursday night, that may have been enough for Rossi
> to be competitive for the title on Michelins combined with a new R&D
> push. But the musical chairs ended up with Rossi on Bridgestone. Combine
> that with Rossi missing tests and it may well take till mid season for
> Bridgestone to come up with a tyre that he likes. Add a Yamaha engine
> that isn't fast enough or breaks and it's hard to see him able to match
> Stoner next year over the whole season. If you think that Stoner at 22
> is a match for Rossi at 28, then it still feels like
> Stoner+Ducati+Bridgestone can trump Rossi+Yamaha+Bridgestone.
>
> My take as of Nov '07
> - Rossi is screwed. The best he can hope for in '08 is 2nd
Well he (hopefully) screwed himself.
> - Repsol Honda are screwed. It'll take till mid '08 for the new bike to
> be competitive
The bike seemed to be getting more and more competive as this season progressed. Even Nicky began to
look be in the potentional podium/win mix. With Honda's vast resourses I wouldn't write them off at
this point.
> - Melandri is screwed. He won't be able to get his head round riding a
> motocross bike.
Julian, what are you implying here?
Is Capirossi and Stoner's riding style THAT different then Marco's?
> - Lorenzo is screwed. Stuck on his own in a garage with no friends and
> with Edwards+Toseland ganging up on him. But then as a rookie nobody is
> expecting wins.
>
> - Hopkins, Vermeulen, Capirossi will be fast. Just not fast enough.
>
> - Toseland, Lorenzo, Dovizioso, De Angelis is going to be a real needle
> match with a lot of elbows, pushing and shoving. There's a lot of pride
> at stake here.
>
> - The rest will be only a fraction off the pace and just like this year,
> have a bad day and you end up 13th.
>
> Which leaves Stoner with the championship to lose. Barring bad luck
> catching up with him, it's hard to see anything but a continuation of
> this year's run.
>
> Put that another way. Stoner, Rossi, Dani P are the only riders I can
> imagine winning the championship. But by 2/3 of the season, I think
> Stoner will be out front with the other two chasing him down. Again.
A pretty reasonable prediction, although I'd reverse 2nd and 3rd. If the tire equation evens out or
if injuries/equipment failures enter into the picture, there could be an upset...
However lets give Stoner some credit for riding a near flawless race season. Wouldn't most (folk in
the know:) rate Capirossi as faster then Edwards?
> --
> Julian Bond E&MSN: julian_bond at voidstar.com M: +44 (0)77 5907 2173
> Webmaster: http://www.ecademy.com/ T: +44 (0)192 0412 433
> Personal WebLog: http://www.voidstar.com/ skype:julian.bond?chat
> Add Butter And Vanilla >> Stay informed about: Colin's take on the tires, etc. |
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Since: Mar 05, 2005 Posts: 777
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(Msg. 7) Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2007 12:47 pm
Post subject: Re: Colin's take on the tires, etc. [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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Brutus wrote:
> "Julian Bond" wrote
>> - Melandri is screwed. He won't be able to get his head round riding a
>> motocross bike.
>
> Julian, what are you implying here?
> Is Capirossi and Stoner's riding style THAT different then Marco's?
The assumption Julian is making, I think, is that if Marco's riding
style is anything like Loris', then he's in for a world of hurt on that
bike.
> However lets give Stoner some credit for riding a near flawless race season. Wouldn't most (folk in
> the know:) rate Capirossi as faster then Edwards?
Not sure about that, although I've learned that in this regard a
democratic outcome is hardly the right one. One of the talking heads in
GP (probably Scott, maybe Oxley) suggested that perhaps Capirossi just
isn't that good, that Bayliss' win at Valencia last year and Stoner's
dominance showed the bike was better than Loris is. The biggest question
of 2007 was why Stoner succeeded so much on the same machine that Loris
made look ordinary at best. Maybe it's Casey's dirt-derived skills that
made the difference. And perhaps both Colin and Loris have been struck
by 30-something daddy-itis, having been at this game at a high level for
15 years or more, married with children.
At least Loris has had what Colin hasn't hasn't in GP, being the lead
rider for a factory team. Or been the lead rider on a competitive team
(I'll excuse Colin's lead rider status at Aprilia in '03 on both
counts). No question that they're different types of riders, Loris
always looking on the edge when he's on the pace, and Colin just
smoothly clicking off the laps at near-identical times when he's there.
So Loris LOOKS faster, but that really means nothing. So who knows... >> Stay informed about: Colin's take on the tires, etc. |
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Since: Jun 20, 2003 Posts: 798
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(Msg. 8) Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2007 4:42 pm
Post subject: Re: Colin's take on the tires, etc. [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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Brutus <se6bq5 RemoveThis @teleport.com> Sun, 25 Nov 2007 11:33:19
>"Julian Bond" <julian_bond RemoveThis @voidstar.com> wrote in message
>> - Repsol Honda are screwed. It'll take till mid '08 for the new bike to
>> be competitive
>
>The bike seemed to be getting more and more competive as this season
>progressed. Even Nicky began to
>look be in the potentional podium/win mix. With Honda's vast resourses
>I wouldn't write them off at
>this point.
Honda have a new engine that chases power via revs via pneumatic valves.
And yet there were races near the end of the season last year when they
had to turn the power down late in the race to deal with fuel
consumption. It is still Nov, and there's only been two tests but the
current version of the new engine seems to have both top end power
issues and drive-ability issues. I'm sure they will work it out, but I
don't think they'll work it out by the start of the season. Then there's
the new chassis. Dani P really got last year's sorted with about 5 races
to go and he started riding it like a motocrosser. Hayden also seemed to
work it out around the same time but maybe got confused by tyres. So now
they're both starting again with a new chassis. It wouldn't surprise me
at all if it takes them several races before they really get it dialled
in and work out all over again how to get the best from it. And with the
satellite teams getting the end of '07 bike, HRC won't let Dani P and
Hayden use it. They'll have to persevere with the new bike until it
works.
>> - Melandri is screwed. He won't be able to get his head round riding a
>> motocross bike.
>
>Julian, what are you implying here?
>Is Capirossi and Stoner's riding style THAT different then Marco's?
I'm thinking more that Melandri will have similar problems to Capirossi
(and Barros). The Ducati seems to be a bit of a beast that rewards
people who don't care about it being out of shape, bucking and weaving.
Even though Melandri can spin it up and style it with the best of them,
he's fastest with a stiff hard chassis that doesn't move around much. So
yes, his style is different from Stoner. And he may have the same engine
feel problems that Loris complained of.
>However lets give Stoner some credit for riding a near flawless race
>season. Wouldn't most (folk in
>the know:) rate Capirossi as faster then Edwards?
When Stoner had a bad day last year (3rd or 4th), it was caused by
questionable tyre choices. With 40 tyres per weekend and the testing
rules relaxed for unusual circuits, I can't see these mistakes repeating
themselves. So I can't see any reason why he should be slower than last
year and I can see reasons why the very few chinks should be sorted out.
So then you get into who's going to step up there game and challenge him
week in, week out. For all the reasons above I can't see anyone managing
this until 1/3 to 1/2 the way through the season.
--
Julian Bond E&MSN: julian_bond at voidstar.com M: +44 (0)77 5907 2173
Webmaster: http://www.ecademy.com/ T: +44 (0)192 0412 433
Personal WebLog: http://www.voidstar.com/ skype:julian.bond?chat
Extreme Control >> Stay informed about: Colin's take on the tires, etc. |
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Since: Jun 20, 2003 Posts: 798
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(Msg. 9) Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2007 4:42 pm
Post subject: Re: Colin's take on the tires, etc. [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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T3 <notme.RemoveThis@nowhere.net> Sun, 25 Nov 2007 14:52:50
>> - Melandri is screwed. He won't be able to get his head round riding
>>a motocross bike.
>
>Say what? Best bike, best tires, best team and he's screwed? If there
>ever was a golden opportunity to show your stuff, the dude has it. The
>real question might be, can he dance? We'll see..
Hey, it's Nov and the first tests may not mean anything. But Melandri
was giving the impression of somebody who jumped on the bike and went
WTF! It's not just can he dance. It's can he dance on a bike that
rewards wringing it's neck till it's leaping about like a mad thing. I'm
beginning to think that this is a Ducati family trait. Both in WSB and
in MotoGP, Ducatis have had the best results from people who fight the
bike into submission. Fogarty, Bayliss, Capirossi had this. Checa,
Gibernau, Barros didn't. I don't know if Melandri does.
>I'd be very surprised if '08 is anything like this year and barring
>injuries we might see 4, or maybe even 5 guys still very much in the
>running by PI.
Like who? And let's say "In the running" means "A mathematical chance of
taking the championship"
>Bottom line for me? I really believe a lot of Stoner's success this
>year can be attributed to the Duc's electronics, the 'Stones and while
>there's no doubt he can ride, I don't think he'll have all those
>advantages next year...
Focus, outright power, fuel consumption via electronics, tyres that
work, a chassis that suits his style. And so on. I can't see him going
any slower. The new tyre rules should help him avoid the few bad results
he had. All that (and the #1) makes him the target. So who's going to go
faster than last year and take the fight to him? And will they do it
early enough in the season and stop him building another unassailable
points lead?
--
Julian Bond E&MSN: julian_bond at voidstar.com M: +44 (0)77 5907 2173
Webmaster: http://www.ecademy.com/ T: +44 (0)192 0412 433
Personal WebLog: http://www.voidstar.com/ skype:julian.bond?chat
Extreme Control >> Stay informed about: Colin's take on the tires, etc. |
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Since: Oct 19, 2007 Posts: 71
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(Msg. 10) Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2007 5:21 pm
Post subject: Re: Colin's take on the tires, etc. [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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On 2007-11-25 15:40:49 -0500, Julian Bond <julian_bond DeleteThis @voidstar.com> said:
> T3 <notme DeleteThis @nowhere.net> Sun, 25 Nov 2007 14:52:50
>>> - Melandri is screwed. He won't be able to get his head round riding a
>>> motocross bike.
>>
>> Say what? Best bike, best tires, best team and he's screwed? If there
>> ever was a golden opportunity to show your stuff, the dude has it. The
>> real question might be, can he dance? We'll see..
>
> Hey, it's Nov and the first tests may not mean anything. But Melandri
> was giving the impression of somebody who jumped on the bike and went
> WTF! It's not just can he dance. It's can he dance on a bike that
> rewards wringing it's neck till it's leaping about like a mad thing.
> I'm beginning to think that this is a Ducati family trait. Both in WSB
> and in MotoGP, Ducatis have had the best results from people who fight
> the bike into submission. Fogarty, Bayliss, Capirossi had this. Checa,
> Gibernau, Barros didn't. I don't know if Melandri does.
You very well may be on to something, didn't Stoner drop his '06 bike a
bunch? So, maybe that's another thing that helped make his season, a
bike he could flog and not wad..
>
>> I'd be very surprised if '08 is anything like this year and barring
>> injuries we might see 4, or maybe even 5 guys still very much in the
>> running by PI.
>
> Like who? And let's say "In the running" means "A mathematical chance
> of taking the championship"
It really waaaay to early, but the usual suspects (to me) would be (and
in no particular order) Rossi, Hayden, Dani, Stoner and Melandri,
though I expect Hoppy to snag at least one and Chris V. is due as well.
I just think that given it's the 2nd year of the class(800cc) and that
the tire restrictions have been relaxed, the points chase will be a
whole lot closer than this year when they get to Oz in '08...
>
>> Bottom line for me? I really believe a lot of Stoner's success this
>> year can be attributed to the Duc's electronics, the 'Stones and while
>> there's no doubt he can ride, I don't think he'll have all those
>> advantages next year...
>
> Focus, outright power, fuel consumption via electronics, tyres that
> work, a chassis that suits his style. And so on. I can't see him going
> any slower. The new tyre rules should help him avoid the few bad
> results he had. All that (and the #1) makes him the target. So who's
> going to go faster than last year and take the fight to him? And will
> they do it early enough in the season and stop him building another
> unassailable points lead?
To say the planets aligned for Duc this year is an understatement.
First of all they got Casey, but he wasn't their first choice and for
all we know not their 2nd either. Secondly, Honda made a huge error
with their "small bike" thing. Thirdly, the tire deal really helped and
then there was the Marrelli contribution that obviously blind sided the
rest of the field. There's probably more things too, but those four
sorta' jump off the page, at least to me and it would be folly to think
that will happen again next year, it could, but I seriously doubt it. I
think you're right about him being a target, but it's likely a target
that will have more than a few holes in it by Valencia... >> Stay informed about: Colin's take on the tires, etc. |
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Since: Jun 20, 2003 Posts: 798
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(Msg. 11) Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2007 3:43 am
Post subject: Re: Colin's take on the tires, etc. [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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T3 <notme.DeleteThis@nowhere.net> Sun, 25 Nov 2007 17:21:45
>To say the planets aligned for Duc this year is an understatement.
>First of all they got Casey, but he wasn't their first choice and for
>all we know not their 2nd either. Secondly, Honda made a huge error
>with their "small bike" thing. Thirdly, the tire deal really helped and
>then there was the Marrelli contribution that obviously blind sided the
>rest of the field. There's probably more things too, but those four
>sorta' jump off the page, at least to me and it would be folly to think
>that will happen again next year, it could, but I seriously doubt it. I
>think you're right about him being a target, but it's likely a target
>that will have more than a few holes in it by Valencia...
You're right about everything lining up in Stoner's and Ducati's favour
last year. But then everything that is good about Stoner, Ducati and
Bridgestone is continuing. While everything about his main rivals is
changing.
- Rossi on new tyres and with a new engine
- Dani P and Hayden on a brand new bike with a new engine
- Melandri, Hopkins, Capirossi on unfamiliar bikes
Even if all this stuff works straight out of the box, it's going to be a
challenge to reach the consistency that Stoner showed last year.
--
Julian Bond E&MSN: julian_bond at voidstar.com M: +44 (0)77 5907 2173
Webmaster: http://www.ecademy.com/ T: +44 (0)192 0412 433
Personal WebLog: http://www.voidstar.com/ skype:julian.bond?chat
Extreme Control >> Stay informed about: Colin's take on the tires, etc. |
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Since: Mar 05, 2005 Posts: 777
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(Msg. 12) Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2007 7:24 am
Post subject: Re: Colin's take on the tires, etc. [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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Julian Bond wrote:
> Brutus
>> The bike seemed to be getting more and more competive as this season
>> progressed. Even Nicky began to
>> look be in the potentional podium/win mix. With Honda's vast resourses
>> I wouldn't write them off at
>> this point.
>
> Honda have a new engine that chases power via revs via pneumatic valves.
> And yet there were races near the end of the season last year when they
> had to turn the power down late in the race to deal with fuel
> consumption. It is still Nov, and there's only been two tests but the
> current version of the new engine seems to have both top end power
> issues and drive-ability issues. I'm sure they will work it out, but I
> don't think they'll work it out by the start of the season.
Motor issues are the most likely to be worked out, largely taking shop
work and lots of testing on the dyno. You don't need the same degree of
track testing as the chassis, and sorting through the rider feedback. It
would be very surprising to me if Honda doesn't have a significantly
improved powerplant by March.
Then there's
> the new chassis. Dani P really got last year's sorted with about 5 races
> to go and he started riding it like a motocrosser. Hayden also seemed to
> work it out around the same time but maybe got confused by tyres. So now
> they're both starting again with a new chassis.
Huh? Didn't Honda provide them with several chassis during the year?
Doesn't the new bike use an evolution of the old one and not a totally
new design? Seems like you're reaching here.
It wouldn't surprise me
> at all if it takes them several races before they really get it dialled
> in and work out all over again how to get the best from it. And with the
> satellite teams getting the end of '07 bike, HRC won't let Dani P and
> Hayden use it. They'll have to persevere with the new bike until it works.
C'mon, this isn't Hayden-Brno in 2006 all over again, I really doubt
that either would want to reach back and use a bike that they both would
rather forget. Hayden in particular seems unlikely to do so, and appears
quite positive about the eventual prospects of the new machine.
>> However lets give Stoner some credit for riding a near flawless race
>> season. Wouldn't most (folk in
>> the know:) rate Capirossi as faster then Edwards?
> When Stoner had a bad day last year (3rd or 4th), it was caused by
> questionable tyre choices. With 40 tyres per weekend and the testing
> rules relaxed for unusual circuits, I can't see these mistakes repeating
> themselves.
I think the common view of the tire thing is a bit off. Adding 9 tires
to the assortment available doesn't really change things that much, I
don't think. People seem very focused on Michelin losing the Saturday
Night Specials, but I don't think that's really so much the issue here.
The issue is that in the past when things weren't working so well on
Friday or the weather was variable, the top riders could make changes on
the fly, going in a new direction. If you look at Hayden late in the
year, he was working on the new 16-inchers, and at Valencia his whole
suite of selected tires were these. But then they didn't seem to work on
the track, and he had no alternative. That didn't take Michelin brewing
up tires across the border in France, it just took them going to the
back of the truck, but that wasn't, and won't be, an option.
So what do the extra tires mean? Several times this year a read about
guys not able to practice on a tire they had already selected for the
race, because there were no more of them available, just the race set.
So do they just take more of the few tires they select? Or do they add
another set of one more option, or maybe both? Nine tires just doesn't
add that much, doesn't go that far.
Bridgestone seemed to have an edge in part because their shipping
requirements probably had the focused on tires that covered a broader
range of applications, they were already choosing to play under these
sorts of rules more than Michelin. And their tires were simply better;
if they replayed last year under the old rules Bridgestone would have
likely came out on top anyway.
But blaming tire selection for the races where Stoner was off the pace
seems too simplistic, I really doubt that he'd have won 18 races under
the old rules, or these new ones. When you're winning that easily, it's
easy to see where a single change could have added to the tally. It gets
more complicated to assess when your bike doesn't handle well generally,
or your motor doesn't make enough power, or it fails altogether, or you
get knocked off the track by another rider. What Stoner seems to have is
more potential ways for things to go downhill than anyone else, having
had a blessed season. You know, like Rossi going into 06-07... >> Stay informed about: Colin's take on the tires, etc. |
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Since: Oct 19, 2007 Posts: 71
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(Msg. 13) Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2007 10:34 am
Post subject: Re: Colin's take on the tires, etc. [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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On 2007-11-26 03:16:13 -0500, Julian Bond <julian_bond.TakeThisOut@voidstar.com> said:
>>
>
> You're right about everything lining up in Stoner's and Ducati's favour
> last year. But then everything that is good about Stoner, Ducati and
> Bridgestone is continuing. While everything about his main rivals is
> changing.
> - Rossi on new tyres and with a new engine
Rossi pretty much bitch slapped everyone when they changed to 4
strokes, different tires and air valves shouldn't be that big a deal,
especially for the "GOAT"..
> - Dani P and Hayden on a brand new bike with a new engine
Big question mark here, apparently there's some kind of
engineering/direction struggle going on in Asaka, but hopefully that
pendulum has swung back to where both guys can ride the bike, though
Vale leaving for the 'Stones may help their riders too..
> - Melandri, Hopkins, Capirossi on unfamiliar bikes
Hoppy and Capi may well be a little slow out of the gate, but Marco's a
homeboy and I kinda' doubt that he won't be up to speed from the get
go..
> Even if all this stuff works straight out of the box, it's going to be
> a challenge to reach the consistency that Stoner showed last year.
Clearly Duc showed their hand early this year and nobody could answer,
but I'd be really surprised if it happens again, it could, but it's my
experience that it won't. For instance, Vale's gonna be using those
great 'Stone Qtires, so, he prolly won't be anywhere, but the front row
and we both know that alone could mess with Stonah's head. To me the
Honda's are the biggest question mark, but given the way they were
out-gunned this year I'd think that will be different too and then
there's Marco who is now the latest great Dago hope and you damn well
know he's gonna' get everything he needs, maybe even at Casey's
expense. Sure, Capi prolly got the same deal, but Melandri's the young
gun and supposedly is very hungry. At the GP level none can remain
static, or complacent, especially not a little company in Italy and
that fact alone may force some errors, but we'll see, just understand
I'm not saying your wrong about Casey breaking big out of the box again
next year, I'd just be very surprised if he does... >> Stay informed about: Colin's take on the tires, etc. |
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Since: Oct 19, 2007 Posts: 71
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(Msg. 14) Posted: Tue Nov 27, 2007 11:14 am
Post subject: Re: Colin's take on the tires, etc. [Login to view extended thread Info.] Archived from groups: per prev. post (more info?)
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On 2007-11-26 21:53:36 -0500, Mark N <menusbaum.TakeThisOut@NYETSPAMearthlink.net> said:
>
>>> Mark N confesses
> Anyway, sorry if I've allowed reality to impose on your fun, guys,
You see, that's one of the things you can't seem to grasp, whenever
you're unable to "impose your reality" on someone the "discussion"
always takes a turn south and if a light-hearted jab, or barb gets
exchanged instead of just letting it go and moving on you escalate and
go total bitch on whoever had the misfortune to disagree with you. I'm
not telling you what to do in any fashion, shape or form, but if I
were you I'd work on that. Just remember, if you do choose to play in
the deep end of the pool, make damn sure you can swim, that is, learn
to take, as well as give...
> I know how much of an issue reality tends to be for all of you from
> time to time...
Heh, heh, I can't speak for anyone else, but my future's so bright I
gotta' wear shades! >> Stay informed about: Colin's take on the tires, etc. |
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